2025 Surprises: Gold, Tech, and Trump's Return

2025 brought market upheavals, with Donald Trump's return to power in the US playing a significant role. Despite initial concerns, global markets rebounded, with stocks rising by 21%.

Gold rose nearly 70%, while the US dollar fell by 10%. Oil recorded a decline, while junk bonds soared. American tech companies lost their luster, while bitcoin declined.

European defense industry stocks rose as Trump signaled a willingness to limit Europe's military protection. European banks had their best year since 1997, while South Korean stocks rose by 70%.

US interest rate cuts and Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve affected bond markets. Trump's large spending led to yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds above 5.1%.

Artificial intelligence (AI) contributed to the increase in debt as companies borrow to invest. Goldman Sachs estimates that major AI “hyperscalers” have spent nearly $400 billion this year.

The ruble strengthened due to Trump's rapprochement with Vladimir Putin. Argentina saw a reversal in its markets after a $20 billion pledge from Trump.

New challenges are expected in 2026, such as the US midterm elections and elections in various countries.