War and Markets: Resilience of the Greek Economy

Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are causing concerns in the markets. Analysts note that "Black Swans" (unforeseen events) tend to appear in March, such as the pandemic in 2020 and the war in Ukraine in 2022.

Goldman Sachs is considering adverse scenarios regarding potential disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to an increase in oil prices.

However, the Greek economy appears to be showing resilience. The rating agency Fitch estimates that the conflict in the Middle East will be short-lived and that Greece is better prepared than other Eurozone countries. Moody's forecasts a stable outlook for Greek banks, despite geopolitical pressures.

Goldman Sachs also emphasizes that Greece is relatively less exposed to energy price crises compared to other European countries. In addition, the government has fiscal space to offset the economic impact.