Iran: Regime Change and Military Options

The question of a potential overthrow of the Iranian regime resurfaces as Iran faces mass protests and scenarios of military intervention. According to the BBC, despite repeated crises in the past 17 years, the regime has not collapsed.

The Islamic Republic has a strong security apparatus, including networks of informants, communications monitoring, and the Basij paramilitary mechanism. This mechanism has suppressed previous protests with extreme violence.

Donald Trump has military options, with potential targets including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, a US raid could rally society around the leadership.

Iran has ballistic missiles and allied forces, such as the Houthis in Yemen, and could threaten international shipping. Tehran's position is weaker compared to the past, having lost its ally in Syria.

The death toll in the protests varies. The NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR) reports at least 192 deaths, while HRANA reports 554 deaths. The People's Mujahedin say more than 3,000 people have been killed.