Turkey-Iran: Why Ankara Avoids Conflict Since 1639

Despite tensions with Iran and incidents involving Iranian missiles, Turkey appears to be avoiding a conflict, while not seeking rapprochement with Israel. Although some voices in Israel advocate for restoring relations with Turkey, the prevailing assessment remains pessimistic.

Israeli officials who favor rapprochement argue that it serves Israeli interests, but reservations persist. A senior diplomatic official believes it is "too early" to discuss reconciliation. Analysts emphasize that, beyond Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's aversion to antisemitism, there have been no positive signals from Ankara.

Erdoğan condemned antisemitism but continued his aggressive rhetoric against Israel, accusing it of harassment and terrorism in the region. Meanwhile, Turkey has not turned against Tehran, despite Iranian ballistic attacks, limiting itself to warnings.

In Turkish political perception, Iran is not an enemy but a "headache." Ankara fears the collapse of the Iranian regime and the strengthening of Israeli influence. It is also concerned about the Kurdish issue and a potential refugee wave from Iran.

Turkey and Iran have not been at war since 1639, which serves as a strategic restraint. Hakan Fidan, the current Turkish Foreign Minister, is considered hostile to Israel.

The political will for a Turkey-Israel rapprochement remains limited due to historical balances, geopolitical calculations, and Erdoğan's rhetoric.