CNN: Three Scenarios for the End of the Middle East Crisis

CNN presents three possible scenarios for the evolution of the crisis in the Middle East, affecting governments, markets, and citizens worldwide. The analysis considers unpredictable factors, such as the decisions of Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei.

According to CNN, the ongoing military operation aims to limit the military power of Iran, targeting missile systems, drone facilities, naval and air forces, and its nuclear program.

The economic dimension of the crisis remains significant, with tensions in the Persian Gulf affecting international energy markets and the global economy.

The three scenarios, according to Bret McGurk, CNN international affairs analyst, are:

1. Limited Iran (60% probability): Military weakening of Iran, maintaining sanctions, and monitoring airspace. Paralleled with Iraq in the 1990s.
2. Aggressive Iran (30% probability): Premature termination of the military operation, reconstruction of Iran, and increased instability in the region.
3. New Iran (10% probability): Military pressure leading to internal turmoil and overthrow of the regime. Considered less likely due to the suppression of demonstrations.

The analysis emphasizes that the scenarios are not mutually exclusive and may evolve in combination. American involvement in the Iran issue is expected to continue, leading to a weaker and more limited Iran and new balances in the Middle East.