Iran: Seven Scenarios for Potential US Military Action

Following recent reports of potential US military action against Iran, the BBC presents seven scenarios for what could happen.

The scenarios include targeted attacks aimed at regime change, a situation where the regime survives but changes policies, the replacement of the regime by a military government, Iranian attacks against US forces and neighboring countries, the mining of the Gulf by Iran, the sinking of a US warship, and the collapse of the regime leading to chaos.

The BBC notes that the greatest risk is President Trump deciding to act to avoid losing credibility, starting a war with unpredictable consequences.

One scenario envisions targeted attacks against military bases of the Revolutionary Guards and Iran's nuclear program, leading to a democratic transition. Another scenario involves a situation similar to that of Venezuela, where the regime remains but moderates its policies. The most likely scenario is considered the replacement of the regime by a military government.

Furthermore, the possibility of Iran responding with attacks on US forces and neighboring countries, using ballistic missiles and drones, is considered. Other scenarios include the laying of mines in the Gulf and the sinking of a US warship through a "swarm" attack. Finally, there is the scenario of the collapse of the regime leading to civil war and a humanitarian crisis.