M. Kontos: Two Scenarios for Iran's Response to US Strikes

Michalis Kontos, Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Nicosia, analyzes potential Iranian responses following US strikes on its nuclear facilities. In statements to philenews, Kontos argues that the question is not whether Tehran will respond, but how.

Kontos outlines two main scenarios. The first is a typical response from Iran, with limited strikes on US targets in the region, similar to the reaction after the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani in 2020. The second scenario involves an escalation, with large-scale attacks against US targets or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Professor Kontos estimates that the coming days will be crucial for the development of the situation. He notes that Israel has achieved the strategic goal of aligning the US with its efforts. He also mentions that if the US strikes were effective and Iran chooses a typical response, there may be a prospect for a cessation of hostilities. Otherwise, the US may escalate its operations.

Regarding the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz, Kontos believes that this would constitute an escalation on the part of Iran, which would harm China's interests. Furthermore, he mentions that Cyprus faces the risk of Iranian strikes against British bases on the island, should they be used for attacks against Iran.

Kontos emphasizes that Cyprus benefits from the stabilization of the situation and the implementation of the IMEC corridor. He points out Cyprus' geostrategic positioning alongside countries such as Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, with whom it shares common interests.

Finally, he underlines that in times of conflict, states are called upon to take a stand, and Cyprus should take into account its strategic cooperation with Israel and regional partnerships.